The following are all recent headlines1: ❖ EIA projects 48% increase in world energy consumption by 2040 ❖ World energy demand to plateau from 2030, says DNV GL’s inaugural Energy Transition Outlook ❖ Coal demand to reaming flat to 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation ❖ Global demand for energy will peak in 2030, says World energy Council ❖ Exxon sees oil demand down 20% in 2040; or maybe it’ll be up As discussed in class, energy demand forecasting is a venture into the unknown and therefore it is not a precise science – as the above range of headlines would seem to indicate! Consequently, the forecasts more specifically the long-term energy demand forecasts, are rarely very accurate. So, why bother? Well, as imperfect as they may be they are the guideposts helping energy planners and policy makers make decision for meeting future demand. So, given all that you know about energy demand what is your prediction for what energy demand will be/look like in 2040 (remember that is only a little over 20 years away). In other words what, in your opinion, is the most likely scenario for how the energy world will look in 22ish years. 1 The associated articles as well as some of the documents are posted on URCourses. Of course you can use whatever data, articles you like to inform your analysis. You will need to explain your answer fully based on what evidence or assumptions you are basing your analysis. For example what you think the impact of climate policies will be; public attitude; the rate of technological development and penetration; economic conditions; energy intensity, and fuel switching etc. – whatever you think will be the biggest demand drivers will be. Your assignment will be graded on the presentation of your argument in terms of the depth and quality of your analysis and assumptions, as well as the quality of the presentation (organization, spelling, grammar). The paper should be about 2-3 pages in length – following the same general guidelines as provided for the research paper in terms of font, spacing etc. *SEE THE ATTACH FILE PLEASE.
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